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Stochastic weather generators are statistical models that produce random numbers that resemble the observed weather data on which they have been fitted; they are widely used in meteorological and hydrologi- cal simulations. For modeling daily precipitation in weather generators, first-order Markov chain-dependent exponential, gamma, mixed-exponential, and lognormal distributions can be used. To examine the perfor- mance of these four distributions for precipitation simulation, they were fitted to observed data collected at 10 stations in the watershed of Yishu River. The parameters of these models were estimated using a maximum-likelihood technique performed using genetic algorithms. Parameters for each calendar month and the Fourier series describing parameters for the whole year were estimated separately. Bayesian infor- mation criterion, simulated monthly mean, maximum daily value, and variance were tested and compared to evaluate the fitness and performance of these models. The results indicate that the lognormal and mixed-exponential distributions give smaller BICs, but their stochastic simulations have overestimation and underestimation respectively, while the gamma and exponential distributions give larger BICs, but their stochastic simulations produced monthly mean precipitation very well. When these distributions were fitted using Fourier series, they all underestimated the above statistics for the months of June, July and August. 相似文献
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Fractions and Bioavailability of Soil Inorganic Phosphorus in the Loess Plateau of China under Different Vegetations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Plants play an important role in soil phosphorus nutrition. However, the effect of plants on phosphorus nutrition in soils of the Loess Plateau of China is not well understood. This study was conducted to reveal the relationships between plants and phosphorus’ fractions and availability in the Loess Plateau of China. Twenty-two plant communities were surveyed and soil samples under different plant canopies were collected for the determination of soil properties and inorganic phosphorus fractionation. The results showed that Leguminosae and Lilaceae reduced pH and increased organic matter, cation exchange capacity, total and Olsen phosphorus in soils under their canopies, while Labiatae and Rosaceae increased pH and decreased organic matter, cation exchange capacity, total and Olsen phosphorus in soils under their canopies. The contents of Ca2P, Ca8P, Al-P and Fe-P were highly related with soil Olsen phosphorus. They were all higher in soils under Leguminosae and Lilaceae and lower in soils under Labiatae and Rosaceae. The results of this study indicate that Leguminosae and Lilaceae improved phosphorus nutrition in soils, yet Labiatae and Rosaceae impeded the improvement of phosphorus nutrition in soils under their canopies, which will be of more help to instruct vegetation restoration in the region and provide information for soil development. 相似文献
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Winter precipitation over Central Asia and the western Tibetan Plateau (CAWTP) is mainly a result of the interaction between the westerly circulation and the high mountains around the plateau. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), linear regression and composite analysis were used to analyze winter daily precipitation and other meteorological elements in this region from 1979 to 2013, in order to understand how interactions between the regional circulation and topography affect the intraseasonal variability in precipitation. The SVD analysis shows that the winter daily precipitation variability distribution is characterized by a dipole pattern with opposite signs over the northern Pamir Plateau and over the Karakoram Himalaya, similar to the second mode of EOF analysis. This dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly is associated with local anomalies in both the 700 hPa moisture transport and the 500 hPa geopotential height and is probably caused by oscillations in the regional and large-scale circulations, which can influence the westerly disturbance tracks and water vapor transport. The linear regression shows that the anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation over CAWTP corresponds to an anti-phase variation of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the southern and northern North Atlantic 10 days earlier (at 95% significance level), that bears a similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The composite analysis reveals that the NAO impacts the downstream regions including CAWTP by controlling south-north two branches of the middle latitude westerly circulation around the Eurasian border. During the positive phases of the NAO, the northern branch of the westerly circulation goes around the northwest Tibetan Plateau, whereas the southern branch encounters the southwest Tibetan Plateau, which leads to reduced precipitation over the northern Pamir Plateau and increased precipitation over the Karakoram Himalaya, and vice versa. 相似文献
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Dunxian She Jun Xia Longteng Zhu Junmei Lü Xiangdong Chen Liping Zhang Xiang Zhang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(4):1099-1113
This study investigates the changes of rainfall patterns along with the underlying reasons in the Nansi Lake Basin (NLB), China during 1960–2009. Results show that the annual rainfall increases from the northwest to the southeast of the NLB. From the temporal variation perspective, annual rainfall decreases slightly in the majority of stations. Furthermore, in spite of no pronounced trends are detected in all stations, the annual rainfall series fluctuate intensely, and present step changes around the year of 1974 and 2002. This change pattern of rainfall is verified by the approximately wet–dry–wet phase pattern, which is exhibited in the standardized departures of annual rainfall series, during the three sub-periods divided by the pre-obtained two change years. In particular, the parametric t test demonstrate that the step change in 2002 is significant. The variations in the rainy season (RS, June–September) rainfall contributed mostly to the changes in the annual rainfall, and a high similarity of change patterns between the RS and annual rainfall is also observed. The long term mean RS and annual rainfall decreases largely from the sub-period of 1960–1974 to 1974–2002, and increased largely from the sub-period of 1974–2002 to 2002–2009 in the NLB. Besides, various elements, such as the summer East Asian summer monsoon and summer Pacific decadal oscillation, may together lead to the step changes in summer rainfall over our study area. 相似文献
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利用1990、2000、2013年6-9月阿尔泰山地区Landsat遥感影像资料,综合运用遥感技术及相关分析方法,研究近24 a阿尔泰山圆叶桦的空间分布及其动态变化。结果表明:(1)阿尔泰山圆叶桦主要分布在86.5°E-89.5°E、47.6°N-49.2°N,近24 a来阿尔泰山圆叶桦的分布面积整体呈增长趋势且幅度较大,增长速率较快;(2)圆叶桦主要分布在海拔2000~2400 m之间,其分布高度随时间整体呈上升态势,上升速率为0.87 m·(10 a)^-1;(3)圆叶桦主要分布在阴坡,占比达58%,近24 a来随着海拔上升在阳坡的分布逐渐增加、阴坡相反。 相似文献
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鲁西北罕见的秋季连阴雨环流特征分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用常规天气图资料和NCEP提供的1°×1°FNL分析场资料等,分析了2007年9月26日至10月7日鲁西北秋季连阴雨期间大尺度环流及物理量特征.分析表明,连阴雨期间,亚欧上空大型环流相对稳定,乌拉尔山附近维持一稳定的阻塞高压,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏强,低纬地区热带气旋活动频繁,南亚高压和副热带急流位置明显偏北,亚洲中纬度多短波槽东移,700hPa鲁西北及其北侧多维持切变线,与副热带高压西北侧的西南暖湿气流在黄河中、下游一带持续相互作用,形成了长达12天的阴雨天气. 相似文献
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北大西洋涛动作为冬季北大西洋地区大气环流的主模态之一,其年际变率对全球许多地区气候变率具有重要影响,但目前其预测技巧并不高。采用降维投影四维变分同化方法,在耦合模式中建立了基于全球大气资料的弱耦合资料同化系统,直接同化月平均再分析资料,并进行了年代际后报试验。结果表明,通过耦合资料同化的手段,可以显著提升耦合模式对冬季北大西洋涛动年际变率及其相关的欧洲北部、美国东部、欧亚大陆北部的冬季近地面温度年际变率的后报效果,相关系数均超过0.05显著水平t检验。该后报效果的改进主要与在耦合同化过程中通过耦合模式中自由发展的海-气相互作用将大气的观测信息储存在耦合模式的海洋分量中,改进了冬季北大西洋地区海表温度“三极”型分布的时空变率及其时间序列的后报效果有关。该研究强调了耦合模式初始状态的准确度对提升冬季北大西洋涛动年际变率的后报技巧具有重要作用。 相似文献
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《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2004,66(1):39-49
A single-wavelength Rayleigh lidar system has been used to measure the temperatures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the night in the altitude range from about 8 to . The temperature derivation is based on an inversion algorithm of the pure Rayleigh backscatter. Calculations include the derivation of the air molecular concentration by an iterative method and the backscattered signals corrected by the background aerosol, which is now found to be low and stable. The uncertainties in estimating the temperature using this method are discussed in detail.The temperature profiles and the tropopause characteristics derived by using the lidar measurements are compared with the radiosonde data. Good agreement is found between these two measurements revealing the potential of this method. The comparison with radiosonde data shows that the lidar measured tropopause temperature is lower by and the tropopause height is higher by than the radiosonde measurements. The climatology of local tropopause (24.57°N,121.13°E) is briefly discussed in terms of a double tropopause formation and seasonal variations of the tropopause height and temperature. 相似文献
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临沂市汛期暴雨与旱涝 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
根据临沂市１９６１－１９９７年逐日降水资料,计算了汛期暴雨日数,相当蚶日 与旱涝级别和汛期总降水量的关系。得出：汛期暴雨多少对汛期降水多少具有决定性作用。在某种意义上讲,汛期旱涝预测主要是汛期暴雨预测。 相似文献
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Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are essential for the interconnection of different reference systems involved in Chang’E-1 (CE-1) lunar exploration, such as the Earth fixed reference system, celestial reference system and dynamical reference system. To improve the accuracy of predicted EOP values and to reduce their influence on the accuracy of CE-1 orbital parameters, a relativistic mathematical model of differential VLBI (ΔVLBI) time delay observations for the CE-1 transfer orbit is derived in this paper, which is generated by differencing CE-1 time delay observations with a simulated radio source's time delay observations. The CE-1 orbital parameters and EOP are simultaneously estimated with least squares adjustment using the measured time delay observations of the CE-1 transfer orbit. The results show that the accuracy of the CE-1 orbit and EOP estimates is improved by the CE-1 ΔVLBI observations with optimal orbital arc length and the win-win approach is able to improve the accuracy of both the CE-1 orbital parameters and EOP estimates. The estimated CE-1 orbital accuracy can achieve a few hundred meters and the estimated EOP accuracies are better than their predicted values. 相似文献
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